@article{897a0d4dcfee46fc8ae07fb7717b45a9,
title = "Assessing the influence of variation in forage availability on spatial patterns of beehive migration using a hybrid modelling approach – B-Agent",
abstract = "Bees and beekeeping are increasingly recognised as important contributors to sustainable development. Beekeeping is a landscape-scale process that involves complex interconnectivities between beekeepers, beehives and bee forage. Yet, accounting for these interactions within beekeeping system models is challenging as interactions are dynamic and often influenced by human behaviour and decision making. To this end, this research describes a spatially explicit modelling approach B-Agent, which draws upon multiple stakeholder engagement, a machine-learning algorithm and an agent-based model to simulate beehive migration processes. The Western Australian beekeeping sector provides a case study for model development and testing, to examine changes in (i) distances travelled by beekeepers, (ii) the frequency of beehive migration, and (iii) the spatial distribution of harvest locations resulting from climate related impacts on forage availability. The results indicate an increase in travel distance and frequency of hive migrations for commercial beekeepers under a moderate emissions climate scenario and indicated an eastward shift in the spatial distribution of harvest locations. The approach provides an evidence-base for better-informed management decisions in order to improve the long-term sustainability of beekeeping systems in Western Australia and beyond.",
keywords = "Agent-based model, B-Agent, Beekeeping system, Climate change, Decision-making, Social-ecological interactions",
author = "Vidushi Patel and Bryan Boruff and Eloise Biggs and Natasha Pauli",
note = "Funding Information: The authors acknowledge financial and in-kind support from the Cooperative Research Centre for Honey Bee Products (CRCHBP) [ CRC20160042 ], Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources , and Bee Industry Council of Western Australia (BICWA) . We also acknowledge all our participant beekeepers for contributing their time and knowledge to this research. We further acknowledge Manita Narongsirikul for her support during the data collection process and Daniel Dixon for his help with python programming. Some visual components of the graphical abstracts were sourced from the Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/media-library) provided for use through an Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) licence. This research was undertaken with funding support from the Cooperative Research Centre for Honey Bee Products [ CRC20160042 ] and the Faculty of Science, University of Western Australia . Funding Information: Humans and their interactions with nature are embedded within social-ecological systems (SES) (Ostrom, 2009), the sustainability of which is continually threatened by anthropogenic pressures and environmental change (Turner II et al., 2016). Characterising the complex interconnectivities within an SES has become increasingly important for effective environmental management as well as adoption of new transdisciplinary approaches that support sustainable human-environment interactions (Davis et al., 2019; Rissman & Gillon, 2016; Virapongse et al., 2016). SES relationships are often driven by human actions (e.g., economic activities) and therefore require explicit representation of human behaviour and decision-making processes when attempting to model the interconnectivities found within an SES (Finn M{\"u}ller-Hansen et al., 2017).A beekeeper's preference for forage sites closer to home (Galbraith et al., 2017) is a significant contributor to the variability in travel patterns identified. Similarly, the number of loads owned by a beekeeper and a beekeeper's initial location (my_home) affects the travel patterns observed. Beekeepers with a similar number of loads show comparable patterns, for example, smaller difference were observed in annual travel between commercial beekeepers with five loads (905.9 km) and a semi-commercial beekeeper with four loads (758.9 km). The observed peak in monthly travel in the future scenario during autumn is likely due to commercial beekeepers returning closer to home for winter from longer distance travelled during previous months (Gordon et al., 2014). The emergent patterns identified by the hive migration ABM simulation runs under both future emissions scenarios suggest the mean annual distance travelled for commercial beekeepers is always higher than semi-commercial beekeepers, supporting a known pattern in the WA beekeeping industry (Table B.6 Appendix B). Patterns in frequency of beehive migration.B-Agent provides an integrated model for assessing social-ecological interconnectivities associated with beehive migration processes. The methods presented in this paper further our ability to integrate hive migration decision making processes within a beekeeping SES ABM. In WA, the application of B-Agent has enabled the identification of the spatial extent of species composition important for beekeeping, with 30 key bee forage species noted. The seasonal and monthly changes in spatial distributions of these key bee forage species, along with composite species richness, have been visualised for baseline and future scenarios. Beehive migration patterns in WA have been modelled for future forage availability using B-Agent, suggesting a shift in hive site use (in an easterly direction). Under the moderate emissions scenario, an increase in the total annual distance travelled by commercial beekeepers was observed as well as an increase in the frequency of beehive migrations. The known structurally interconnected patterns associated with the impacts of climate change on the beekeeping SES have been supported by the results. Based on these findings, land restoration and reforestation initiatives should consider using B-Agent to inform planting decisions according to the habitat suitability of forage species. With the projected change in future forage availability, current decision-making strategies for beekeepers may also need to change in order to maintaining sustainable production. B-Agent accounts for the complexities associated with beehive migration processes as a pragmatic modelling tool for multiple users, including beekeepers and decision-makers, to assess the impacts of anthropogenic and environmental pressures on the beekeeping SES and better inform management decisions to achieve the long-term sustainability of the beekeeping systems.The authors acknowledge financial and in-kind support from the Cooperative Research Centre for Honey Bee Products (CRCHBP) [CRC20160042], Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, and Bee Industry Council of Western Australia (BICWA). We also acknowledge all our participant beekeepers for contributing their time and knowledge to this research. We further acknowledge Manita Narongsirikul for her support during the data collection process and Daniel Dixon for his help with python programming. Some visual components of the graphical abstracts were sourced from the Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/media-library) provided for use through an Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) licence. This research was undertaken with funding support from the Cooperative Research Centre for Honey Bee Products [CRC20160042] and the Faculty of Science, University of Western Australia. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 Elsevier Ltd",
year = "2023",
month = aug,
doi = "10.1016/j.apgeog.2023.103003",
language = "English",
volume = "157",
journal = "Applied Geography",
issn = "0143-6228",
publisher = "Elsevier",
}