An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate

P. Bayliss, C. M. Finlayson, J. Innes, A. Norman-López, R. Bartolo, A. Harford, N. E. Pettit, C. L. Humphrey, R. Van Dam, L. X.C. Dutra, E. Woodward, E. Ligtermoet, A. Steven, A. Chariton, D. K. Williams

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The internationally important river-floodplains of the Kakadu Region in northern Australia are at risk from invasive species and future sea-level rise-saltwater inundation (SLR-SWI), requiring assessments of multiple cumulative risks over different time frames. An integrated risk-assessment framework was developed to assess threats from feral animals and aquatic weeds at three SLR-scenario time frames (present-day, 2070 and 2100) to natural (magpie goose habitats), cultural (indigenous hunting-fishing sites) and economic (tourism revenue less invasive species control costs) values. Probability density functions (pdfs) were fitted to spatial data to characterise values and threats, and combined with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties. All risks were integrated in a Bayesian belief network to undertake 'what if' management-scenario analyses, and incorporated known ecological interactions and uncertainties. Coastal landscapes and socio-ecological systems in the region will be very different by 2100 as a result of SLR; freshwater ecosystems will transform to marine-dominated ecosystems and cannot be managed back to analogue conditions. In this context, future invasive-species risks will decrease, reflecting substantial loss of freshwater habitats previously at risk and a reduction in the extent of invasive species, highlighting the importance of freshwater refugia for the survival of iconic species.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1159-1185
Number of pages27
JournalMarine and Freshwater Research
Volume69
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2018

Fingerprint

risk assessment process
Introduced Species
Climate
floodplains
invasive species
Ecosystem
floodplain
risk assessment
climate change
Fresh Water
climate
satellite laser ranging
cumulative risk
uncertainty
feral animals
Uncertainty
aquatic weeds
tourism economics
spatial data
tourism

Cite this

Bayliss, P., Finlayson, C. M., Innes, J., Norman-López, A., Bartolo, R., Harford, A., ... Williams, D. K. (2018). An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate. Marine and Freshwater Research, 69(7), 1159-1185. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF17043
Bayliss, P. ; Finlayson, C. M. ; Innes, J. ; Norman-López, A. ; Bartolo, R. ; Harford, A. ; Pettit, N. E. ; Humphrey, C. L. ; Van Dam, R. ; Dutra, L. X.C. ; Woodward, E. ; Ligtermoet, E. ; Steven, A. ; Chariton, A. ; Williams, D. K. / An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate. In: Marine and Freshwater Research. 2018 ; Vol. 69, No. 7. pp. 1159-1185.
@article{5ffcd256b6ce4b8a81283e060e42ed37,
title = "An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate",
abstract = "The internationally important river-floodplains of the Kakadu Region in northern Australia are at risk from invasive species and future sea-level rise-saltwater inundation (SLR-SWI), requiring assessments of multiple cumulative risks over different time frames. An integrated risk-assessment framework was developed to assess threats from feral animals and aquatic weeds at three SLR-scenario time frames (present-day, 2070 and 2100) to natural (magpie goose habitats), cultural (indigenous hunting-fishing sites) and economic (tourism revenue less invasive species control costs) values. Probability density functions (pdfs) were fitted to spatial data to characterise values and threats, and combined with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties. All risks were integrated in a Bayesian belief network to undertake 'what if' management-scenario analyses, and incorporated known ecological interactions and uncertainties. Coastal landscapes and socio-ecological systems in the region will be very different by 2100 as a result of SLR; freshwater ecosystems will transform to marine-dominated ecosystems and cannot be managed back to analogue conditions. In this context, future invasive-species risks will decrease, reflecting substantial loss of freshwater habitats previously at risk and a reduction in the extent of invasive species, highlighting the importance of freshwater refugia for the survival of iconic species.",
keywords = "Adaptive management, Bioeconomic, Climate change, Decadal, Feedback, Kakadu national park, Ramsar, Socio-ecological systems, Threshold, Traditional owners",
author = "P. Bayliss and Finlayson, {C. M.} and J. Innes and A. Norman-L{\'o}pez and R. Bartolo and A. Harford and Pettit, {N. E.} and Humphrey, {C. L.} and {Van Dam}, R. and Dutra, {L. X.C.} and E. Woodward and E. Ligtermoet and A. Steven and A. Chariton and Williams, {D. K.}",
year = "2018",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1071/MF17043",
language = "English",
volume = "69",
pages = "1159--1185",
journal = "Marine Freshwater Research",
issn = "0067-1940",
publisher = "CSIRO Publishing",
number = "7",

}

Bayliss, P, Finlayson, CM, Innes, J, Norman-López, A, Bartolo, R, Harford, A, Pettit, NE, Humphrey, CL, Van Dam, R, Dutra, LXC, Woodward, E, Ligtermoet, E, Steven, A, Chariton, A & Williams, DK 2018, 'An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate' Marine and Freshwater Research, vol. 69, no. 7, pp. 1159-1185. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF17043

An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate. / Bayliss, P.; Finlayson, C. M.; Innes, J.; Norman-López, A.; Bartolo, R.; Harford, A.; Pettit, N. E.; Humphrey, C. L.; Van Dam, R.; Dutra, L. X.C.; Woodward, E.; Ligtermoet, E.; Steven, A.; Chariton, A.; Williams, D. K.

In: Marine and Freshwater Research, Vol. 69, No. 7, 01.01.2018, p. 1159-1185.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate

AU - Bayliss, P.

AU - Finlayson, C. M.

AU - Innes, J.

AU - Norman-López, A.

AU - Bartolo, R.

AU - Harford, A.

AU - Pettit, N. E.

AU - Humphrey, C. L.

AU - Van Dam, R.

AU - Dutra, L. X.C.

AU - Woodward, E.

AU - Ligtermoet, E.

AU - Steven, A.

AU - Chariton, A.

AU - Williams, D. K.

PY - 2018/1/1

Y1 - 2018/1/1

N2 - The internationally important river-floodplains of the Kakadu Region in northern Australia are at risk from invasive species and future sea-level rise-saltwater inundation (SLR-SWI), requiring assessments of multiple cumulative risks over different time frames. An integrated risk-assessment framework was developed to assess threats from feral animals and aquatic weeds at three SLR-scenario time frames (present-day, 2070 and 2100) to natural (magpie goose habitats), cultural (indigenous hunting-fishing sites) and economic (tourism revenue less invasive species control costs) values. Probability density functions (pdfs) were fitted to spatial data to characterise values and threats, and combined with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties. All risks were integrated in a Bayesian belief network to undertake 'what if' management-scenario analyses, and incorporated known ecological interactions and uncertainties. Coastal landscapes and socio-ecological systems in the region will be very different by 2100 as a result of SLR; freshwater ecosystems will transform to marine-dominated ecosystems and cannot be managed back to analogue conditions. In this context, future invasive-species risks will decrease, reflecting substantial loss of freshwater habitats previously at risk and a reduction in the extent of invasive species, highlighting the importance of freshwater refugia for the survival of iconic species.

AB - The internationally important river-floodplains of the Kakadu Region in northern Australia are at risk from invasive species and future sea-level rise-saltwater inundation (SLR-SWI), requiring assessments of multiple cumulative risks over different time frames. An integrated risk-assessment framework was developed to assess threats from feral animals and aquatic weeds at three SLR-scenario time frames (present-day, 2070 and 2100) to natural (magpie goose habitats), cultural (indigenous hunting-fishing sites) and economic (tourism revenue less invasive species control costs) values. Probability density functions (pdfs) were fitted to spatial data to characterise values and threats, and combined with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties. All risks were integrated in a Bayesian belief network to undertake 'what if' management-scenario analyses, and incorporated known ecological interactions and uncertainties. Coastal landscapes and socio-ecological systems in the region will be very different by 2100 as a result of SLR; freshwater ecosystems will transform to marine-dominated ecosystems and cannot be managed back to analogue conditions. In this context, future invasive-species risks will decrease, reflecting substantial loss of freshwater habitats previously at risk and a reduction in the extent of invasive species, highlighting the importance of freshwater refugia for the survival of iconic species.

KW - Adaptive management

KW - Bioeconomic

KW - Climate change

KW - Decadal

KW - Feedback

KW - Kakadu national park

KW - Ramsar

KW - Socio-ecological systems

KW - Threshold

KW - Traditional owners

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85048926933&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1071/MF17043

DO - 10.1071/MF17043

M3 - Article

VL - 69

SP - 1159

EP - 1185

JO - Marine Freshwater Research

JF - Marine Freshwater Research

SN - 0067-1940

IS - 7

ER -