An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers

E. Petersen, Robert Fraser

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Of the number of seasonal forecasting systems that have been developed of late, none are of practical benefit to Western Australian farmers. This study aims to improve the methodology for assessing the value of forecasting technology ex ante to its development, using the Merredin agricultural region of Western Australia as an illustration. Results suggest that a seasonal forecasting technology that provides a 30% decrease in seasonal uncertainty increases annual profits by approximately 5%. The accumulated annual benefit to farmers in the Merredin region (an area with 754 farm holdings over 35,500 km(2) of land) is approximately 2 million dollars. Hence, support is given for the development of seasonal forecasting techniques in Western Australia. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)259-274
JournalAgricultural Systems
Volume70
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2001

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Western Australia
farmers
seasonal development
profits and margins
uncertainty
farms
methodology

Cite this

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title = "An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers",
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An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers. / Petersen, E.; Fraser, Robert.

In: Agricultural Systems, Vol. 70, 2001, p. 259-274.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers

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AU - Fraser, Robert

PY - 2001

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AB - Of the number of seasonal forecasting systems that have been developed of late, none are of practical benefit to Western Australian farmers. This study aims to improve the methodology for assessing the value of forecasting technology ex ante to its development, using the Merredin agricultural region of Western Australia as an illustration. Results suggest that a seasonal forecasting technology that provides a 30% decrease in seasonal uncertainty increases annual profits by approximately 5%. The accumulated annual benefit to farmers in the Merredin region (an area with 754 farm holdings over 35,500 km(2) of land) is approximately 2 million dollars. Hence, support is given for the development of seasonal forecasting techniques in Western Australia. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

U2 - 10.1016/S0308-521X(01)00012-9

DO - 10.1016/S0308-521X(01)00012-9

M3 - Article

VL - 70

SP - 259

EP - 274

JO - Agricultural Systems

JF - Agricultural Systems

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