TY - JOUR
T1 - Alcohol Consumption in the United States
T2 - Past, Present, and Future Trends
AU - Fogarty, James
AU - Voon, Derby
PY - 2018/5/1
Y1 - 2018/5/1
N2 - This research examines long-run changes in alcohol consumption patterns for the United States, at the state level, and presents forecasts for per capita consumption of beer, wine, and spirits developed using the ARIMA methodology. The evidence is then presented on the extent of convergence in consumption through time. This evidence shows that from the 1970s through the early 2000s, a pattern of convergence in both the level of consumption and the consumption mix was evident, but since the early 2000s, and unlike the pattern observed globally, there has been a reversal of this trend. The changes in consumption through time are illustrated via ternary plots. Bayesian estimation methods are used to formally describe changes in historical consumption patterns and to investigate the impact of policy settings on consumption forecasts. There were no systematic correlations found between alcohol policy settings and forecast future consumption changes, or tax rate levels and forecast consumption changes. (JEL Classifications: D12, I18, L66)
AB - This research examines long-run changes in alcohol consumption patterns for the United States, at the state level, and presents forecasts for per capita consumption of beer, wine, and spirits developed using the ARIMA methodology. The evidence is then presented on the extent of convergence in consumption through time. This evidence shows that from the 1970s through the early 2000s, a pattern of convergence in both the level of consumption and the consumption mix was evident, but since the early 2000s, and unlike the pattern observed globally, there has been a reversal of this trend. The changes in consumption through time are illustrated via ternary plots. Bayesian estimation methods are used to formally describe changes in historical consumption patterns and to investigate the impact of policy settings on consumption forecasts. There were no systematic correlations found between alcohol policy settings and forecast future consumption changes, or tax rate levels and forecast consumption changes. (JEL Classifications: D12, I18, L66)
KW - alcohol consumption mix
KW - alcohol policy
KW - forecasting consumption changes
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85060933975&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1017/jwe.2018.16
DO - 10.1017/jwe.2018.16
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85060933975
SN - 1931-4361
VL - 13
SP - 121
EP - 143
JO - Journal of Wine Economics
JF - Journal of Wine Economics
IS - 2
ER -