A Novel Approach for Probabilistic Prediction of Offshore Jack-up

Fuming Yang

doi:10.26182/6s7j-bs89

A Novel Approach for Probabilistic Prediction of Offshore Jack-up

Fuming Yang

UWA Oceans Institute

Research output: Thesis › Doctoral Thesis

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Abstract

Accurate prediction of the spudcan penetration behaviour is essential for the safe installation of offshore jack-ups despite the complex challenges due to uncertainties. In this research, a novel probabilistic approach is proposed by defining and accounting for uncertainties as well as incorporating measurements of historical spudcan installations. This approach offers more reliable and cost-effective prediction for future spudcan penetration at both sampled and unsampled locations. A statistical range of the spudcan penetration profile and the severity of the punch-through failure is defined, which provides engineers with informative guidance about what actions should be taken before any jack-up installation.

Original language	English
Qualification	Doctor of Philosophy
Awarding Institution	The University of Western Australia
Supervisors/Advisors	Cassidy, Mark, Supervisor Li, Jinhui, Supervisor, External person O'Loughlin, Conleth, Supervisor
Thesis sponsors	Australian Government Research Training Program
Award date	2 May 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.26182/6s7j-bs89
Publication status	Unpublished - 2021

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10.26182/6s7j-bs89

THESIS - DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY - YANG, Fuming - 2021
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Cite this

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abstract = "Accurate prediction of the spudcan penetration behaviour is essential for the safe installation of offshore jack-ups despite the complex challenges due to uncertainties. In this research, a novel probabilistic approach is proposed by defining and accounting for uncertainties as well as incorporating measurements of historical spudcan installations. This approach offers more reliable and cost-effective prediction for future spudcan penetration at both sampled and unsampled locations. A statistical range of the spudcan penetration profile and the severity of the punch-through failure is defined, which provides engineers with informative guidance about what actions should be taken before any jack-up installation. ",

keywords = "Bayesian back-analysis, Kriging, Spudcan, Punch-through, Sand-over-Clay, MCMC",

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AB - Accurate prediction of the spudcan penetration behaviour is essential for the safe installation of offshore jack-ups despite the complex challenges due to uncertainties. In this research, a novel probabilistic approach is proposed by defining and accounting for uncertainties as well as incorporating measurements of historical spudcan installations. This approach offers more reliable and cost-effective prediction for future spudcan penetration at both sampled and unsampled locations. A statistical range of the spudcan penetration profile and the severity of the punch-through failure is defined, which provides engineers with informative guidance about what actions should be taken before any jack-up installation.

KW - Bayesian back-analysis

KW - Kriging

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KW - Punch-through

KW - Sand-over-Clay

KW - MCMC

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DO - 10.26182/6s7j-bs89

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A Novel Approach for Probabilistic Prediction of Offshore Jack-up

Abstract

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