TY - JOUR
T1 - A jump diffusion model for spot electricity prices and market price of risk
AU - Bhar, R.
AU - Colwell, D.B.
AU - Xiao, Yuewen
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - We construct a jump-diffusion model with seasonality, mean-reversion, time-dependent jump intensity and heteroskedastic disturbance for electricity spot prices, while keeping the analytical tractability of futures prices. We find that the jump component plays a considerably larger role than the diffusion component in the variance of spot prices. Moreover, the jump intensity is much higher during summer and winter. We also explore the seasonal market price of risk (MPR) with different maturities, from one month to five months. Our results show that the diffusion risk and the jump risk are priced quite differently. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
AB - We construct a jump-diffusion model with seasonality, mean-reversion, time-dependent jump intensity and heteroskedastic disturbance for electricity spot prices, while keeping the analytical tractability of futures prices. We find that the jump component plays a considerably larger role than the diffusion component in the variance of spot prices. Moreover, the jump intensity is much higher during summer and winter. We also explore the seasonal market price of risk (MPR) with different maturities, from one month to five months. Our results show that the diffusion risk and the jump risk are priced quite differently. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
U2 - 10.1016/j.physa.2013.03.026
DO - 10.1016/j.physa.2013.03.026
M3 - Article
SN - 0378-4371
VL - 392
SP - 3213
EP - 3222
JO - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
JF - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
IS - 15
ER -