TY - JOUR
T1 - A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide
T2 - The ISIMIP Lake Sector
AU - Golub, Malgorzata
AU - Thiery, Wim
AU - Marcé, Rafael
AU - Pierson, Don
AU - Vanderkelen, Inne
AU - Mercado-Bettin, Daniel
AU - Woolway, R. Iestyn
AU - Grant, Luke
AU - Jennings, Eleanor
AU - Kraemer, Benjamin M.
AU - Schewe, Jacob
AU - Zhao, Fang
AU - Frieler, Katja
AU - Mengel, Matthias
AU - Bogomolov, Vasiliy Y.
AU - Bouffard, Damien
AU - Côté, Marianne
AU - Couture, Raoul Marie
AU - Debolskiy, Andrey V.
AU - Droppers, Bram
AU - Gal, Gideon
AU - Guo, Mingyang
AU - Janssen, Annette B.G.
AU - Kirillin, Georgiy
AU - Ladwig, Robert
AU - Magee, Madeline
AU - Moore, Tadhg
AU - Perroud, Marjorie
AU - Piccolroaz, Sebastiano
AU - Raaman Vinnaa, Love
AU - Schmid, Martin
AU - Shatwell, Tom
AU - Stepanenko, Victor M.
AU - Tan, Zeli
AU - Woodward, Bronwyn
AU - Yao, Huaxia
AU - Adrian, Rita
AU - Allan, Mathew
AU - Anneville, Orlane
AU - Arvola, Lauri
AU - Atkins, Karen
AU - Boegman, Leon
AU - Carey, Cayelan
AU - Christianson, Kyle
AU - De Eyto, Elvira
AU - Degasperi, Curtis
AU - Grechushnikova, Maria
AU - Hejzlar, Josef
AU - Joehnk, Klaus
AU - Jones, Ian D.
AU - Laas, Alo
AU - MacKay, Eleanor B.
AU - Mammarella, Ivan
AU - Markensten, Hampus
AU - McBride, Chris
AU - Özkundakci, Deniz
AU - Potes, Miguel
AU - Rinke, Karsten
AU - Robertson, Dale
AU - Rusak, James A.
AU - Salgado, Rui
AU - Van Der Linden, Leon
AU - Verburg, Piet
AU - Wain, Danielle
AU - Ward, Nicole K.
AU - Wollrab, Sabine
AU - Zdorovennova, Galina
N1 - Funding Information:
Financial support. The funds from the WATExR project (ERA4CS, JPI Climate) provided the financial support to Malgorzata Golub, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Tadhg Moore, Eleanor Jennings, and Daniel Mercado-Bettin. The computations and data handling were enabled by resources provided by the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at Uppmax partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through grant agreement no. 2018-05973. Inne Vanderkelen is a research fellow at the Research Foundation Flanders (grant no. FWOTM920). Zeli Tan is supported by the US DOE’s Earth System Modeling program through the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project. Annette B. G. Janssen is supported by the NWO talent grant Veni (project number VI.Veni.194.002). Bram Droppers is supported by the Wageningen Institute for Environment and Climate Research (WIMEK; grant no. 5160957551). Hampus Markensten was funded by Department of Public Technology, at Mälardalen University, ABB Västerås, Västmanlands Avfallsak-tiebolag, Eskilstuna Energi & Miljö and the EU REFLECT project (Response of European Freshwater Lakes to Environmental and Climatic Change, contract no. ENV4-CT97-0453). Josef Hejzlar received support from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the European Social Fund (ESF) project Biomanip-ulation as a tool for improving water quality of dam reservoirs (grant no. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_025/0007417). Partial funding for this work was provided by the Israeli Ministry of Energy grant no. 215-17-017. High-frequency data from Windermere and Esth-waite Water are currently funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council as part of the UK-SCAPE programme (grant no. refNE/R016429/1). Huaxia Yao and James A. Rusak were supported by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks. Robert Ladwig was supported through an NSF ABI development grant (grant no. DBI 1759865). Victor M. Stepanenko is partially supported by the Russian Ministry for Higher Education and Science (contract no. 075-15-2021-1399). Publisher’s note: the article processing charges for this publication were not paid by a Russian or Belarusian institution. ISIMIP data preparation and curation is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the ISI-Access research project (grant no. 16QK05). Data from lakes Annecy, Bourget, and Geneva were collected and stored with support from the © OLA-IS, AnaEE-France, INRAE of Thonon-les-Bains, CIPEL, SILA, and CISALB (Rimet et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.4081/jlimnol.2020.1944). Data from Lake Kivu were collected with support from Jean-Pierre Descy and the Belgian Science Policy Office through the research project EAGLES (grant no. CD/AR/02A). Alo Laas and data collection from Estonian lakes was funded by Estonian Research Council (grant nos. PSG32, PRG709, and PRG1167). Data from Lake Burley Griffin were collected by the National Capital Authority, Canberra, Australia. Dale Robertson was supported by the USGS. Fang Zhao is sponsored by the Shanghai Pujiang Program (grant no. 20PJ1403300).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Malgorzata Golub et al.
PY - 2022/6/16
Y1 - 2022/6/16
N2 - Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 × ¯0.5 global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 ¯500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.
AB - Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 × ¯0.5 global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 ¯500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85132560015&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022
DO - 10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85132560015
SN - 1991-959X
VL - 15
SP - 4597
EP - 4623
JO - Geoscientific Model Development
JF - Geoscientific Model Development
IS - 11
ER -