[Truncated abstract] This thesis examines and compares the performance of three classes of stock trading strategies in the Australian stock market from 1980 to 2002. ... The first segment of this thesis examines some simple technical trading rules with a twostep methodology ... Our standard test results show that technical trading rules generate excess returns higher than that of the buy-and-hold portfolio equivalent prior to 1991, but generate lower returns in the period post-1991. Bootstrap test results also show that addressing nonnormality, time-dependence and conditional heteroskedasticity in the data reverses the standard test outcome of predictability ... In addition, our sub-sample results also show technical trading rules becoming less profitable over time ... The second segment of this thesis examines trading rules based on the forecasts of four time-series models: the AR(1), AR(1)-GARCH(1,1), AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M and AR(1)- EGARCH(1,1) models. These time-series trading rules were examined with standard t-tests and found to be significantly less profitable compared to technical trading rules. Subsample results also show the time-series trading rules losing profitability over time, which supports the conjecture that the Australian stock market became increasingly efficient over time. The third segment of this thesis examines trading strategies based on various combinations of technical trading rules and time-series models ... Due to the weak performance of the time-series trading rules, our results show that combining technical rules with time-series models do not lead to improved forecast accuracy. Sub-sample results again show a strong decline in profitability post-1991, suggesting that technological advancements in the ASX since 1991 enhance market efficiency such that the above simple stock trading strategies are no longer profitable.
|Qualification||Doctor of Philosophy|
|Publication status||Unpublished - 2005|