Photo of Qazi Haque
  • The University of Western Australia (M251), 35 Stirling Highway,

    6009 Perth

    Australia

  • 1 Citations
  • 1 h-Index
20172017
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Personal profile

Biography

I am a Postdoctoral Researcher in the Business School at The University of Western Australia and a research associate at the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Australian National University. I am currently visiting the University of Oxford. Previously, I have worked as an Economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia. My research interests are in Macroeconomics and Applied Macroeconometrics.

CV

Previous positions

Economist 

Economic Analysis Department

Reserve Bank of Australia

Research

Publication:

Monetary Policy and Indeterminacy after the 2001 Slump, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Volume 82, September 2017, Pages 83-95.

with Firmin Doko Tchatoka, Nicolas Groshenny and Mark Weder (Not for Publication Appendix)

This paper estimates a New Keynesian model of the U.S. economy over the period following the 2001 slump, a period for which the adequacy of monetary policy is intensely debated. We find that only when measuring inflation with core PCE does monetary policy appear to have been reasonable and sufficiently active to rule out indeterminacy. We then relax the assumption that inflation in the model is measured by a single indicator and re-formulate the artificial economy as a factor model where the theory's concept of inflation is the common factor to the empirical inflation series. CPI and PCE provide better indicators of the latent concept while core PCE is less informative. Finally, we estimate an economy that distinguishes between core and headline inflation rates. This model comfortably rules out indeterminacy.

 

Working Papers:

Monetary Policy, Inflation Target and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation (Not for Publication Appendix)

This paper estimates a New Keynesian model with trend inflation and contrasts Taylor rules featuring fixed versus time-varying inflation target while allowing for passive monetary policy. The estimation is conducted over the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation periods. Time-varying inflation target empirically fits better and active monetary policy prevails in both periods, thereby ruling out sunspots as an explanation of the Great Inflation episode. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the decline in inflation volatility since the mid-1980s is mainly driven by monetary policy, while the reduction in output growth variability is explained by the reduced volatility of technology shocks.

 

Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s?

with Nicolas Groshenny and Mark Weder

The paper re-examines whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Inflation by estimating a sticky-price model with positive trend inflation, commodity price shocks and sluggish real wages. Our estimation provides empirical evidence for substantial wage-rigidity and finds that the Federal Reserve responded aggressively to inflation but negligibly to the output gap. In the presence of non-trivial real imperfections and well-identified commodity price-shocks, U.S. data prefers a determinate version of the New Keynesian model: monetary policy-induced indeterminacy and sunspots were not causes of macroeconomic instability during the pre-Volcker era.

 

Work in Progress:

On Bootstrapping Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy

with Firmin Doko Tchatoka

The asymptotic distributions of the recursive out-of-sample forecast accuracy test statistics depend on stochastic integrals of Brownian motion when the models under comparison are nested. This often renders the computation of the asymptotic critical values cumbersome, thus complicating their implementation in practice. Hansen and Timmermann (2015, Econometrica) propose a Wald approximation of the commonly used recursive F-statistic. The asymptotic distribution of this wald statistic is a convolution of dependent chi-square(1) distributed random variables, and its exact density has a closed form expression when either the forecast errors are homoscedastic or the larger model has one extra predictor. However, no such closed form characterization is readily available when the nesting involves more than one predictor and heteroscedasticity is present. We first show both the recursive F-statistic and its Wald approximation have poor finite-sample properties, especially when the forecast horizon is greater than one. We then propose a bootstrap method for both statistics and establish its consistency. Simulations show that our bootstrap has good finite-sample performance, even in multi-step ahead forecasts with heteroscedastic or autocorrelated errors. The bootstrap method is illustrated on forecasting core inflation and GDP growth.

 

The New Keynesian IS Curve in a Small Open Economy

with Leandro Magnusson

We investigate the empirical evidence on the New Keynesian IS curve using aggregate data for a set of four small open economies, using methods that are robust to weak instruments and structural changes. We start with the conventional closed economy model and consider extensions that include habits and hand-to-mouth consumers. We then extend the analysis to allow for each country to behave like a small open economy. We find that structural changes are informative for the identification of the Euler equation models in some small open economies. However, in all four countries, there is little responsiveness of consumption to changes in the interest rate and no evidence of parameter instability, but otherwise aggregate data provide little information to distinguish between alternative theoretical models.

 

The Long-run Phillips Curve

with Guido Ascari and Paolo Bonomolo

 

Empirical Evidence on the Investment Euler Equation

with Guido Ascari, Leandro Magnusson and Sophocles Mavroeidis

 

Monetary Policy, Unemployment and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited

with Nicolas GroshennyMark Weder and Bo Zhang

 

 

Teaching overview

Teaching Assistant, The University of Adelaide

2012: Intermediate Macroeconomics

2013: Intermediate Macroeconomics; International Finance

2014: Intermediate Macroeconomics; Advanced Macroeconomics

2015: Intermediate Macroeconomics; Money, Banking and Financial Markets; Principles of Macroeconomics

2016: Intermediate Macroeconomics; Money, Banking and Financial Markets

2017: Intermediate Macroeconomics; Money, Banking and Financial Markets; Principles of Economics

2018: Intermediate Macroeconomics; Money, Banking and Financial Markets; Principles of Economics

 

Teaching Adviser, The University of Adelaide

2017: Economics Drop-In Centre, Faculty of the Professions

 

Instructor, Mini-Course at Reserve Bank of New Zealand (April 2018)

Topics: Bayesian Estimation of State-Space Models using Particle Filtering; Solving and Estimating Indeterminate DSGE Models; Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation

Education/Academic qualification

Economics, PhD, University of Adelaide

Jul 2014Jun 2018

Economics, Bachelor of Economics (Honours), University of Adelaide

Feb 2010Dec 2013

External positions

Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU

Jun 2019Jun 2022

Academic Visitor, University of Oxford

Mar 2019Jul 2019

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics where Qazi Haque is active. These topic labels come from the works of this person. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Monetary Policy Mathematics
Indeterminacy Mathematics
Inflation Mathematics
Common factor Mathematics
Factor Models Mathematics
Estimate Mathematics
Monetary policy Business & Economics
Model Mathematics

Network Recent external collaboration on country level. Dive into details by clicking on the dots.

Research Output 2017 2017

  • 1 Citations
  • 1 h-Index
  • 1 Article
1 Citation (Scopus)

Monetary policy and indeterminacy after the 2001 slump

Doko Tchatoka, F., Groshenny, N., Haque, Q. & Weder, M., Sep 2017, In : Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 82, p. 83-95

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Open Access
Monetary Policy
Indeterminacy
Inflation
Common factor
Factor Models